Sunday, December 27, 2009

Aussies living beyond our means

Aussies are $1.2 trillion in debt ! Wow!
In a new record, Australians now owe more in household debt than the country's entire economy earns in a year. Reserve Bank figures show mortgage, credit card and personal loan debts now stand at $1.2 trillion, up 71 per cent from just five years ago and equating to $56,000 for every man, woman and child in the country.Our spending binge, fuelled most recently by the federal government's First Home Owner Grant, means personal debt now totals 100.4 per cent of Australia's annual GDP - one of the highest ratios in the developed world. "It's the first time household debt has cracked 100 per cent of annual GDP and it's a terrible, terrible sign," University of NSW economics professor Steve Keen told News Ltd. "It shows we are living beyond our means and many highly geared borrowers are now extremely vulnerable to further rate rises - they are already saturated with debt and will not be able to tolerate much of an increase to their repayments." Australia's financial headache is likely to get worse before it gets better. The country is in the midst of the peak spending season, when billions goes on the plastic, yet the Reserve Bank data dates back to October's debt levels only, so that means there are another two months of First Home Owner Grant-fuelled mortgage activity still to be taken into account. The extra cost is expected to add billions to the burgeoning debt tally.

2010 forcast

As prospective home buyers look for the best time to jump into the market, many of the nation’s top housing analysts have forecast modest residential price growth of about 5 or 6 per cent in 2010. Some of Australia’s leading economists believe demand for homes will stay strong as investors and upgraders pick up the slack from first home buyers. But a small group of doomsayers is convinced a combination of rising interest rates, the winding up of the first home owners grant boost and over-inflated prices could lay the foundations for a crash.
Happily, the nation is emerging from the global financial crisis with strong population growth, the lowest interest rates in decades and a rosier jobs outlook. Most economists, industry heads and real estate agents see the sun continuing to shine on residential property next year. BIS Shrapnel senior project manager of residential property Angie Zigomanis predicts steady growth of about five to six per cent in established residential property next year. ‘‘I’d expect you’d see steady low-to-mid single digit growth next year,’’ Mr Zigomanis said. ‘‘Over the next two or three years I think you’ll find interest rates will keep slowly edging upwards and it’ll keep a lid on the massive double digit price growth we were seeing previously.’’ Annual established house prices in Australia grew 6.2 per cent to September 2009, the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics data show. ‘‘If you look at most markets, prices declined last year and while people are talking about booms and everything else, most of what it did was really put prices back to where they were 12 to 18 months ago,’’ Mr Zigomanis said. First home buyers would not be excluded from the market until the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised interest rates by another 1 or 2 per cent, he said. Investor demand and upgrader’s demand picked up in the last few months of 2009 and would continue well into next year. As city rents increased due to low vacancy rates, more first home buyers in the 25 to 35 year age group would be encouraged into the market. Housing Industry Association chief economist Harley Dale said Australia would experience significant 20 to 25 per cent growth in new housing stock through to mid 2011. He also supports predictions of about five to six per cent growth in established home next year.‘‘With prices, we’ll probably continue to get a little bit more growth over the next six to 12 months but probably not at the rate that we’ve seen over the last six months which has been driven a lot by the first home-owner base,’’ he said. Mum and dad investors, who tended to look at the same type of investment housing stock as first home buyers, were beginning to step in to fill the gap. A shortage of housing, low interest rates and the first home buyer’s grant had helped support prices, he said.But University of Western Sydney Associate Professor of economics and finance Steve Keen said the rates and grants combination had already helped cause a housing boom in 2009.‘‘The fact that rates are rising as we enter 2010, combined with the ending of the boost and the winding back of government stimulus packages, means that rising interest rates are likely to end the (housing) bubble that began in 2009,’’ Mr Keen said. The implications would be ‘‘substantially negative’’ for all properties, not just those valued under $500,000.‘‘I’d expect a five per cent or so fall (in residential house prices), probably returning to somewhere between the current peak and the previous one in September 2008.’’ Meanwhile Commonwealth Bank economist James McIntyre cites wages growth as a key part of the equation, while predicting significant skills shortages emerging within 12 to 18 months.He said house prices would grow in the ‘‘mid single digits’’ next year, but those increases depended on how the build up of wages translated to other sectors of the economy. ‘‘If the whole economy catches fire with a strong growth in wages, then that will really be supportive of a continued strong growth in house prices.’’ He dismissed suggestions the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) had waited too long to increase interest rates and said there was a very low chance of house prices falling. It would take a ‘‘significant global shock’’ and an unprecedented surge in building approvals of between 200,000 and 250,000 homes to see significant weakness in house prices, he said. Ray White Real Estate chairman Brian White believes Australia has avoided a dramatic downturn in house prices. ‘‘All of us seem to have forgotten the anguish of the first four or five months of the year and we’re trying to understand just how on earth the year finished so strongly,’’ Mr White, who heads the nation’s largest group of real estate agencies, said. He also forecast growth of about 5 per cent in 2010 and said it had become a vendor’s market. ‘‘Now we’re going into the new year with a number of interest rate increases occurring but with quite strong growth.’’

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Rents increase

SYDNEY rents are set to climb more than 21 per cent over the next three years, the forecasting group BIS Shrapnel says. It suggests that after rising 6.2 per cent this year, Sydney rents will increase by 7.1 per cent a year for the next three years.
The tightening rental market will cause the vacancy rate to drop below 1 per cent, then remain very low in 2011, BIS Shrapnel predicted. The envisaged rent rises were an outcome of medium- and high-density dwelling construction starts plunging 28 per cent in 2009, reaching their lowest level since 1987. ''Housing supply is set to fall due to the low pipeline of new apartments,'' Jason Anderson, an economist at BIS Shrapnel, said. "While supply (of new apartments)has plunged, demand remains very strong.'' The net addition to the population from migration in 2008/09 is estimated at about 300,000, a record high, Mr Anderson said. Tighter lending restrictions on development projects following the global financial crisis had also contributed to the decline in supply. ''It is uncertain as to how long it will be before lending restrictions are eased and, even if some improvement were to occur in the near future, it would be some time before supply improves as most projects take 12 to 18 months to complete,'' he said. The rush to buy a first home was another factor adding to the pressure on rental markets. "A first-home buyer moving out of the family home, and purchasing a former investment property, will have actually reduced the available rental stock," Mr Anderson said. The long-term rental growth in Sydney between 2002 and 2008 was 3.5 per cent. The latest official data from the NSW Department of Housing indicated rents rose 3.9 per cent in the year to September. This reflected a $395 weekly median for two-bedroom rentals across Sydney. Rental growth was highest in the outer suburbs, with a 6.9 per cent annual increase to $310 a week. It was up 4.2 per cent to $375 a week in middle-ring municipalities and up 2.2 per cent to $500 in the pricier inner ring suburbs. The estate agent John McGrath said he expected rents would increase next year by between 5 and 10 per cent due to continuing short supply. He said yields would be maintained around current levels. Yields had dropped slightly from an average 5.3 per cent for apartments to 5.1 per cent, he said, and house rental yields had dropped from 4.4 per cent to 4.3 per cent.
adendum
Renters Becoming Latest Victims as Foreclosure Crisis Widens - (Washington Post - November 23, 2009)A new wave of foreclosures stands to hurt people who may have never taken out a mortgage: renters. In cities such as New York, Chicago and Los Angeles, where many investors are carrying upside-down mortgages on large rental buildings, some tenants are watching their homes fall apart along with the financing. The impact on tenants is uneven. New York City officials say the owners of the vast majority of buildings in foreclosure there are likely to maintain decent standards of living. Yet, of the 200 properties on the city housing agency's 2008 list of buildings with the worst maintenance problems, at least 77 had been in foreclosure. In buildings where a landlord is struggling to make loan payments, maintenance is often the first thing to go. Garbage can pile up, lists of overdue repairs get longer, and vermin multiply. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/22/AR2009112200927.html

Thursday, September 17, 2009

Trusts and ATO

Tax experts are furious at a planned crackdown by the Australian Taxation Office on a commonly-used trust structure and say the ATO's backflip on the issue will have widespread ramifications for taxpayers and their advisers. The ATO is unhappy with the use of discretionary trusts with corporate beneficiaries. It is believed there are around 200,000 of these trusts in operation. Peter Bembrick, tax partner at HLB Mann Judd, says the structure is often used by trust owners who wish to accumulate funds within a trust. Under the structure the ATO wishes to target, distributions from a trust are allocated to a corporate beneficiary, but not actually paid (this is known as an "unpaid present entailment"). This allows the owners of the funds to reduce or defer income tax. The funds can then accumulate in the trust and be reinvested. "Where this does work particularly well is where you are looking to reinvest the money," Bembrick says. The ATO is growing increasingly concerned at the level of accumulated funds inside discretionary trusts, of which there are around 460,000 in use. It is believed half of these trusts have corporate beneficiaries. The ATO is particularly worried about the use of "unpaid present entitlements" and appears to be moving towards a position where entitlements should be treated as a loan and taxed accordingly. But Yasser El-Ansary, tax counsel at the Institute of Chartered Accountants, says the ATO's new stance represents a complete backflip from its previous position, which has been made clear in a number of tax rulings. "There definitely is a strong case to the say that ATO has previously been asked a specific question on this issue and the ATO has in effect, sanctioned the use of these structures." Bembrick agrees. "A change would have very big ramifications and goes against a lot of the planning and structures that people have a place." El-Ansary, who is part of the national tax liaison group that meets regularly with the ATO, is in Canberra today for a meeting on the issue with tax comissioner, Michael D'Ascenzo. El-Ansary expects robust discussion and says his organsiation remains concerned about the position of tax advisers, who could find themselves under fire from clients if the ATO does reverse its ruling. "There is potentially a significant implication for advisers," he says. "Ultimately, what we are aiming for is a solution that is workable for the ATO and taxpayers and their advisers."Read more on: Tax Strategy Trusts Tax planning
lets hope that the ATO gets some common sense and realizes that trusts are a way of protecting assets from unscrupulous litigators. Lets encourage entrepreneurship rather than destroy it, bureaucracy is the most destructive force to progress(LT)

Saturday, June 6, 2009

Aus leading the way

Australia will help lead the world out of recession, as the local economy rebounds strongly off the back of rising consumer confidence, a survey has found. In the "first glimmer of hope" for the global economy, an Ipsos Reuters poll of 23,000 people across the globe has found that confidence is beginning to stabilise after eighteen months of decline. The upbeat analysis follows yesterday's surprise revelation that Australia has dodged a technical recession. Ipsos, a market research group, said that the resurgence of consumer confidence was strongest in the Asia Pacific region. While average global confidence remained flat, the percentage of Australians that deemed the current economic situation either 'good' or 'very good' actually jumped 6 percent, and outstripped the global average by 7 percent. "Interestingly, in the Asia Pacific region overall, including Australia, there was an increasing trend overall from 32 percent to 38 percent. This suggests that our region will lead the world out of recession and emerge relatively strongly", the Ipsos study concluded. The group said the stabilisation has been fuelled by the green shoots of improvement in US consumer confidence, alongside "significant improvements" in China and India. Meanwhile, the blame game has not shifted, with 42 percent of Australians naming the banks and financial professionals as the prime culprits in the crisis. America's former Bush administration and the current Obama administration were also blamed for the global fallout.
Surveying 23 countries, covering 75 percent of the world's gross domestic product (GDP), Ipsos found that by contrast to Australia, Europe - as well as the emerging economies of Russia and Brazil -recorded declining confidence. With Italy the only country in Europe to register a positive change – with a rise from 10 percent to 17 percent in consumer confidence. The company also found that around three quarters of Australians have cut their household spending in response to the economic downturn. This figure has not changed over the last year, indicating that the health of the economy has begun to stabilise. Australia's national accounts, published yesterday, showed that exports and household spending actually helped the economy grow by a 0.4 per cent in the first three months of the year - preventing a second consecutive quarter of negative growth that defines a recession.

Monday, May 25, 2009

variable mortgage rates

Home buyers are flocking back into variable rate mortgages, which now account for 91 per cent of the residential lending market, their highest proportion in four months, a leading mortgage broker says. Mortgage broker Mortgage Choice reported on Tuesday that in April basic variable mortgages accounted for 48.15 per cent of all home loans approved - up nearly one per cent from March, while standard variable mortgages comprised 42.77 per cent of the market, down 1.47 per cent from March. Basic variable loans generally have fewer loan features than a standard variable loan, Mortgage Choice says.Fixed rate loans accounted for four per cent of all approvals, up one percentage point from a month earlier."Basic variable loans have been the most popular loan type for four months now, after overtaking standard variable for the first time on our records in January 2009," Mortgage Choice senior corporate affairs manager Kristy Sheppard said in a statement.Rates charged on variable home loans move in line with interest rates as set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which has successively cut its overnight cash rate since September last year to a 49-year low."Despite interest rates being at their lowest in decades, the volatile global and domestic economic climate is having a strong influence over loan product preferences," Ms Sheppard said."Consumer conservatism with rates and fees continues to win out against loan flexibility and extra features."Line of credit loans in April, popular with property investors, posted a fall of five per cent from the previous month.
Commitments for owner-occupied housing rose 4.9 per cent in March, seasonally adjusted, to 59,793, Australian Bureau of Statistics data this month showed.Total housing finance by value rose by 6.7 per cent in March, seasonally adjusted, to $20.688 billion, the latest month in which data was available.

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Federal Budget and Reserve Bank differ

Just a week after the Federal Budget, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) estimates suggest the numbers do not add up.By the RBA's calculations, the Budget could be out by $11 billion.
Documents obtained by 7News show the RBA has a major difference of opinion on Treasury's growth predictions. Treasury secretary Ken Henry today rejected criticism of the "optimistic" economic forecasts put forward by his department and defended its independence from government interference. Last week's Budget forecasts predicted the economy will see a recovery with above-trend Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 4.5 per cent in 2011-12.
Treasury says the stimulus measures taken prior to the Budget will raise GDP by 2.75 per cent.
But Reserve Bank estimates, obtained under Freedom of Information by 7News say they will boost growth by roughly 1.75 per cent. That is a difference of 1 per cent of GDP, or $11 billion.
When the anomaly was pointed out to the government today the response was that Reserve Bank estimates were three months old and that part of the Budget had been clumsily worded.
Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey is concerned there may be other errors in the Budget. "The Budget is barely one week old and now it has this multi-billion dollar problem," he said. "These Budget papers need to be corrected immediately." The section referring to measures taken prior to the budget should have included measures taken in the Budget. It would have added another 0.75 percent of GDP, bringing the document closer to the Reserve Bank's prediction. Giving his annual post-Budget address to business leaders in Sydney today, Dr Henry took at swipe at those who "seemed to think we must have simply plucked the numbers out of the air".Dr Henry said Treasury's method for calculating GDP used several factors, including the unemployment rate, the population aged over 15 and productivity. "We can obtain an index of real growth domestic product simply by multiplying together those five things and that's actually what we did," he said. "Taken together, those factors produce a GDP growth rate of 4.5 per cent." Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens gave his assessment of Treasury's outlook in hardly a ringing endorsement. "I don't think it's, crazily optimistic," he said. Prime Minister Kevin Rudd says Australia's debt will peak around $300 billion.
Mr Rudd had to be asked the question several times on television before he would name a figure.
He said the peak projected public debt would be 13.8 per cent of GDP in 2013-14. "We're aiming to a gross figure of 13.8, which comes out at about 300 (billion)," Mr Rudd said.
Read the Freedom of Information documents here (WARNING: Large PDF file)