Federal Budget and Reserve Bank differ

Just a week after the Federal Budget, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) estimates suggest the numbers do not add up.By the RBA's calculations, the Budget could be out by $11 billion.
Documents obtained by 7News show the RBA has a major difference of opinion on Treasury's growth predictions. Treasury secretary Ken Henry today rejected criticism of the "optimistic" economic forecasts put forward by his department and defended its independence from government interference. Last week's Budget forecasts predicted the economy will see a recovery with above-trend Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 4.5 per cent in 2011-12.
Treasury says the stimulus measures taken prior to the Budget will raise GDP by 2.75 per cent.
But Reserve Bank estimates, obtained under Freedom of Information by 7News say they will boost growth by roughly 1.75 per cent. That is a difference of 1 per cent of GDP, or $11 billion.
When the anomaly was pointed out to the government today the response was that Reserve Bank estimates were three months old and that part of the Budget had been clumsily worded.
Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey is concerned there may be other errors in the Budget. "The Budget is barely one week old and now it has this multi-billion dollar problem," he said. "These Budget papers need to be corrected immediately." The section referring to measures taken prior to the budget should have included measures taken in the Budget. It would have added another 0.75 percent of GDP, bringing the document closer to the Reserve Bank's prediction. Giving his annual post-Budget address to business leaders in Sydney today, Dr Henry took at swipe at those who "seemed to think we must have simply plucked the numbers out of the air".Dr Henry said Treasury's method for calculating GDP used several factors, including the unemployment rate, the population aged over 15 and productivity. "We can obtain an index of real growth domestic product simply by multiplying together those five things and that's actually what we did," he said. "Taken together, those factors produce a GDP growth rate of 4.5 per cent." Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens gave his assessment of Treasury's outlook in hardly a ringing endorsement. "I don't think it's, crazily optimistic," he said. Prime Minister Kevin Rudd says Australia's debt will peak around $300 billion.
Mr Rudd had to be asked the question several times on television before he would name a figure.
He said the peak projected public debt would be 13.8 per cent of GDP in 2013-14. "We're aiming to a gross figure of 13.8, which comes out at about 300 (billion)," Mr Rudd said.
Read the Freedom of Information documents here (WARNING: Large PDF file)