Friday, April 26, 2013

This is the big picture.

If you look at the Westpac Consumer confidence survey, the 'now is a good time to buy a
dwelling' index has increased 19.6 percent over the past year. We're still a ways off boom-
time levels, but confidence is making a strong come-back.

And you can see it in the auction data too. In both Melbourne and Sydney we've seen a huge
number of auctions in the early part of the year. And auction clearance rates are moving
between 60 and 70 percent. Again, this isn't booming, but it certainly indicative of a healthy
market.

And across the board, all the signs are that we've only just entered the on-ramp.
Unemployment is still a very healthy (and on a global scale, phenomenal) 5.4 percent.
Consumer confidence is also up over 12 percent in the last six months, to the highest level
since 2010. And as this recovery gains more and more traction, it will see a cyclical drive return to house
prices.

At the same time, interest rates remain pinned to the floor. Markets are currently pricing in
little change in official interest rates through the rest of the year, leaving them anchored to a
record low of 3.0 percent. And a rebounding economy and surging house prices won't trouble the RBA much. They've made it pretty clear that their biggest concerns are the high Aussie dollar and uncertainties on the global stage.

We've got a property market with solid fundamentals, backed by a rebounding economy, all while the RBA keeps the pedal to the metal. But watch out! The establishment phase is coming to an end. Soon the bargains will have run dry, and we'll be back in the boom phase.

I think the market as a whole is under-priced, and there are some spectacular opportunities
out there if you know where to look.

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